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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

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Mon Apr 06 01:41:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good thread. It's not *completely* binary whether we wind up with a "best-case scenario" (deaths in the high 5 figures/low 6 figures) or a worst-case scenario (an order of magnitude more). But it's more bimodal than you might think. — PolitiTweet.org

Carl T. Bergstrom @CT_Bergstrom

8. Epidemics work a bit like that. Either you manage to suppress the epidemic and end up on one side of the ridge,… https://t.co/JtyxCHWwsL

Posted April 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Did "electability" help Biden? Probably. I think it *hurt* all the candidates who weren't straight white men. But at least Biden demonstrated his case by having higher turnout in his stronger areas. And overall the media narrative was skeptical of Biden, especially post-IA/NH/NV. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With that said, one thing to track over next ~10-14 days is whether NYC is not merely flattening the curve (it clearly *has* flattened) but bending it downward. The curve staying flat for a long time (R ~=1) is how you could wind up in purgatory. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 6, 2020 Hibernated