Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

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Thu Apr 02 19:13:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) Some models are only seeking to forecast the current wave of infections. Conversely, the experts in this survey are trying to forecast through the end of the year, which could include a second wave. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Two differences to be mindful of: 1) Some models *assume* that social distancing will remain in place until an appropriate time. The experts the survey do not necessarily assume that, however; they are trying to account for real-world uncertainties. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "good news", I suppose—I am making gigantic air-quote motions as I type this—is that the outlook hasn't changed that much over the past few weeks. These same experts were predicting 200K US deaths two weeks ago and 260K now so not actually that different given the wide range. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2020 Hibernated