Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 20, 2020

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Thu Apr 02 19:12:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Two differences to be mindful of: 1) Some models *assume* that social distancing will remain in place until an appropriate time. The experts the survey do not necessarily assume that, however; they are trying to account for real-world uncertainties. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Want a more realistic range for COVID-19 deaths in the US given all the uncertainties involved? Experts in a survey we're publishing say it's somewhere between 70,000 and 1.7 million. The mean guess is 260K, but the range is wide, obviously. https://t.co/ij2siBJuDl — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) Some models are only seeking to forecast the current wave of infections. Conversely, the experts in this survey are trying to forecast through the end of the year, which could include a second wave. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2020 Hibernated