Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 4, 2020

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Thu Mar 26 16:33:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The experts we surveyed also think that under-reporting could be anywhere from 3x (that is, 3 actual cases for every reported case) to 50x (that is, 50 actual cases for every reported case) in the US. That's a big range, and one of the most important unknowns right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Experts expect 117K *reported* cases of coronavirus in the US by Sunday. They also think only about 10% of cases are actually being reported, though, so that would mean more than 1M actual cases. https://t.co/oMWfVdQVVd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@R_Thaler @PTetlock I agree that the ranges for number of deaths seems too narrow. But... if more cases are unreported it also means that the true case fatality rate is lower. So measures such as deaths and hospitalizations may not be that sensitive to underreporting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 26, 2020 Hibernated