Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 15, 2020

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Wed Feb 19 17:46:04 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Specifically, the demographic regressions we use as a compliment to the polls weren't calculating properly since some code changes we introduced on 2/5 (after IA). As a result, the state forecasts were underdispersed (too conservative) especially in states with little polling. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Welp this is annoying, but we found an issue with how our model was making state-by-state forecasts. The error is fixed. The topline effect is not very large and mainly helps "no majority" slightly. A few state forecasts have changed more noticeably. 1/ https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Without demographics the model basically defaulted to a geographic prior, which tends to underrate Biden/Bloomberg in the South and overrate them (especially Biden) outside the South. It also tended to overrate Sanders in Southern states and underrate him in Western states. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2020 Hibernated