Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Thu Feb 06 21:16:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Many scenarios where Warren comes back, for instance, or Bloomberg becomes a big factor, involve them performing well on Super Tuesday when there are still several candidates in the race, and then using that as a springboard by getting a further bounce from that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other way to look at our model's view of the universe right now is this: It's quite hard for *anybody* other than the current leaders in national polls, Sanders and Biden, to get a pledged delegate *majority* given that the calendar is quite frontloaded. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But by the time Super Tuesday has come around, 38% of delegates will already have been awarded. So if you exit Super Tuesday with say ~30% of the delegates so far, you need to get ~63% of the remaining delegates, which is a very high bar. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated