Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Thu Feb 06 21:07:06 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other way to look at our model's view of the universe right now is this: It's quite hard for *anybody* other than the current leaders in national polls, Sanders and Biden, to get a pledged delegate *majority* given that the calendar is quite frontloaded. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

re: No 2, though, I think (post Trump/2016) I feel pretty good about not building too any assumptions into the model about candidates having ceilings. Especially given that the way you'd probably do that, favorability ratings, look reasonably good for Bernie anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Many scenarios where Warren comes back, for instance, or Bloomberg becomes a big factor, involve them performing well on Super Tuesday when there are still several candidates in the race, and then using that as a springboard by getting a further bounce from that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated