Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Thu Feb 06 04:55:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe indicative of something, maybe not, but Steyer underperformed his polling in Iowa, getting 1.8% of the first-alignment vote vs. 3.6% in polls. So did Bloomberg (0.1% vs 1.2%). It seems at least plausible that polls for ad-driven candidates won't translate 1:1 into votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model had priced in a Buttigieg bounce in NH, but he's made some further gains in our forecast after tonight's polling, mostly coming at the expense of Biden. Sanders: 2 in 3 (67%) Buttigieg: 1 in 4 (24%) Warren: 1 in 20 (7%) Biden 1 in 30 (3%) https://t.co/gul5ZwKQfc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Yair_Rosenberg Maybe! It's just an interesting datapoint, and it theoretically makes sense that ads have the bigge… https://t.co/EJjSra8Maj — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated