Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 26, 2020

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Thu Feb 06 04:40:14 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@R_Thaler @jonathanchait @Nate_Cohn Yeah, we don't even try to model that part. My point is just that people conflate "Bloomberg looks like the strongest candidate at the end of the process" vs. "Bloomberg wins an outright majority of pledged delegates" which are pretty different scenarios in his case. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's hard to figure out what the map would look like in a Buttigieg vs. Bernie primary, but it's a plausible enough scenario at this point! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model had priced in a Buttigieg bounce in NH, but he's made some further gains in our forecast after tonight's polling, mostly coming at the expense of Biden. Sanders: 2 in 3 (67%) Buttigieg: 1 in 4 (24%) Warren: 1 in 20 (7%) Biden 1 in 30 (3%) https://t.co/gul5ZwKQfc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 6, 2020 Hibernated