Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 18, 2020

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Tue Feb 04 14:23:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd also note that a pretty big shift in the primaries came in late-Sept./early Oct. when party elites started to signal they were highly unhappy with their field, perhaps partly out of fear of Warren winning since she was surging then. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Mostly not, or at least not unless you control for a bunch of confounders. In terms of the primary itself, though, it's not great for anyone's electability case. No one seems likely to have gotten more than ~25% of ~170,000 people. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Buttigieg has now released a more detailed statement and is claiming to have won 28% of SDE's based on ~75% of the vote. That compares to Sanders's statement claiming 28.6% of SDE's based on ~40% of the vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 4, 2020 Hibernated