Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 18, 2020

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Mon Feb 03 04:44:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. It's not unheard of for polls to come out on caucus day. We'll normally freeze our model in the morning on day… https://t.co/SwSOWttaG0 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Empirically, the error on Iowa polls is high. It's entirely possible Klob could sneak in to 3rd place. Higher than that? Well, our model gives her a ~1 in 40 chance of winning. But that would be a case where the polls had missed something, not "normal margin of error" stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's my explainer about how there are actually 3 DIFFERENT WAYS TO COUNT THE VOTE IN IOWA and why you should care about this. https://t.co/KV8f95Sj1W — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated