Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 18, 2020

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Mon Feb 03 04:28:44 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Klobuchar would be fairly interesting if she were at 13%, and not at all interesting if she were at 7%. She's wound up right in the middle, at 10%. She has made some gains over the past month but we can now rule out a Santorum-like trajectory with a huge last-minute poll surge. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the other hand, she has invested a LOT in Iowa, and should be helped by her ground game, having good precinct ca… https://t.co/X6PuyiC2dx — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Empirically, the error on Iowa polls is high. It's entirely possible Klob could sneak in to 3rd place. Higher than that? Well, our model gives her a ~1 in 40 chance of winning. But that would be a case where the polls had missed something, not "normal margin of error" stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2020 Hibernated