Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 29, 2020

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Thu Jan 30 14:38:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems pretty clear at this point that impeachment has disrupted the usual surge in media and voter attention to the primairies that you'd normally get at this point in the year. (The first graph is the US, the second is in Iowa specifically.) https://t.co/LR5kVkzTVV — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For a candidate polling at >=10, the empirical margin of error on the polling average as it stands right now is +/- 16 percentage points! Polling Iowa is really hard, last minute swings are common, and this doesn't seem to be reflected in news coverage of the state. https://t.co/NSb6bVTLPH — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What are the implications of that? Media coverage tends to drive polling volatility, so that might explain why the polls have been quite stable for the past few months. As @jbview has pointed out, less media coverage might also reduce the bounces out of IA/NH. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 30, 2020 Hibernated