Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 28, 2020

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Wed Jan 29 22:05:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We don't know everything. But we do know it's hard to have big surges in the polls unless you win states. (The 2nd best way is debates, which he's not doing.) We also know it's likely at least 1-2 non-Bloom candidates will be perceived as having momentum after the first 4 states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I also think some of the hype around Bloomberg (14% chance of winning the nomination at prediction markets?!?!) reflects non-rigorous thinking around how primaries work. — PolitiTweet.org

There are a few overlapping interpretations of this: 1) Bloomberg is hard to model because there isn't any precede… https://t.co/wQzkz3PkDF

Posted Jan. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I can see some reasonable-best-case scenarios where he does "surprisingly" well on Super Tuesday and gains momentum… https://t.co/W8KVGCH8NW — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 29, 2020 Hibernated