Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 28, 2020

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Mon Jan 27 21:33:20 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview Like everything else in the model, the bounces themselves are treated as being quite uncertain. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the model, all of this is defined relative to "expectations"; more specifically, relative to national polls. So, e.g. Warren, Klobuchar or Buttigieg would get a bigger bounce, because they aren't doing as well in national polls as Biden/Sanders. — PolitiTweet.org

Not criticizing, because you have to do is some way, but it seems to me the bounce can come from beating expectatio… https://t.co/uenJELch8U

Posted Jan. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview There's also some subjective stuff the model *doesn't* try to account for. Subjectively, perceptions of how… https://t.co/3wXY841O1f — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 27, 2020 Hibernated