Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 28, 2020

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Mon Jan 27 21:18:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IN PLAIN ENGLISH: Candidates should be hoping for a clear margin of victory (say, 4+ points) in Iowa. If it's clos… https://t.co/h9xsHRJMCF — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Well, bounces are very important to the model. (It would be a lot easier to model the primaries if bounces… https://t.co/fqFI9schNZ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the model, all of this is defined relative to "expectations"; more specifically, relative to national polls. So, e.g. Warren, Klobuchar or Buttigieg would get a bigger bounce, because they aren't doing as well in national polls as Biden/Sanders. — PolitiTweet.org

Not criticizing, because you have to do is some way, but it seems to me the bounce can come from beating expectatio… https://t.co/uenJELch8U

Posted Jan. 27, 2020 Hibernated