Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 21, 2020

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Wed Jan 22 17:33:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. This phrasing sounds a bit casual ^^^, but empirically the best predictor of a bounce (and what our model uses to forecast bounces) is how a candidate finishes in a state relative to his or her national polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd certainly rather be in Bernie's position than Warren's, but the best argument for Warren is that she's basicall… https://t.co/R9ps9TlFAt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you do take more subjective notions of "expectations" into account though: Bernie currently has a 44% chance of winning Iowa and Warren a 12% chance in prediction markets, which doesn't really square with the polling there showing the top 4 closely bunched together. https://t.co/C2pLI7jjC1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 22, 2020 Hibernated