Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 21, 2020

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Tue Jan 21 02:23:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @PoliticsWolf FWIW that study found 538 did better than markets. The author had to cheat by creating a "debiased" version of the the markets which is not at all the same thing as a real-time prediction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @PoliticsWolf Since poll-driven probabilistic estimates are publicly available, the fact that prediction markets can't improve on them is proof that they suck. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @PoliticsWolf I would say political prediction markets are surprisingly bad. Not being able to beat… https://t.co/pKkyUZOApg — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 21, 2020 Hibernated