Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 21, 2020

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Tue Jan 21 02:15:44 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @PoliticsWolf Since poll-driven probabilistic estimates are publicly available, the fact that prediction markets can't improve on them is proof that they suck. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Support for impeachment/removal looks like it's up a bit from last month (despite various overwrought punditry re: Pelosi holding the articles of impeachment). https://t.co/Tj71WyGT4x https://t.co/1ToezBR3YY — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @PoliticsWolf FWIW that study found 538 did better than markets. The author had to cheat by creating a "debiased" version of the the markets which is not at all the same thing as a real-time prediction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 21, 2020 Hibernated