Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 21, 2020

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Mon Jan 20 15:33:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten That's giving the market way too much credit. Selzer also gets a big weight in our polling average, and the market is way miscalibrated from our polling average. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a big gap between the polling and the conventional wisdom (as espoused by prediction markets) in Iowa. Relative to polls, Warren is underpriced in prediction markets and Sanders is considerably overpriced. (Others about right.) https://t.co/Ltc1HnoL9z — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten The traders in these markets are those sophomoric types you'll meet who think the narratives they hear about the polls in the mainstream media are highly sophisticated when in fact those narratives are usually random and dumb. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 20, 2020 Hibernated