Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 21, 2020

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Mon Jan 20 15:29:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a big gap between the polling and the conventional wisdom (as espoused by prediction markets) in Iowa. Relative to polls, Warren is underpriced in prediction markets and Sanders is considerably overpriced. (Others about right.) https://t.co/Ltc1HnoL9z — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Two new polls in Iowa this weekend had Biden leading there. Here’s our current IA polling average with comparison to a week ago: Biden 21.5 (+1.5) Sanders 17.4 (-2.5) Buttigieg 16.4 (-1.2) Warren 16.3 (+1.2) Klobuchar 8.4 (+1.7) https://t.co/xB4551dYSc https://t.co/7fZMSlDnWl — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten That's giving the market way too much credit. Selzer also gets a big weight in our polling average, and the market is way miscalibrated from our polling average. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 20, 2020 Hibernated