Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 11, 2020

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Sat Dec 28 19:55:32 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One basic thing that gets overlooked in the D primary, if you're hoping for a surprise winner, is that it's much harder to surpass 4 frontrunners (or semi-frontrunners) than one. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Taniel The polls are pulling him up a lot in NH, which the model doesn't think should be an especially strong state for him. It does think he's a pretty decent Iowa candidate although the polls help him a bit there too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure, there are scenarios where Biden falters, for instance. But in most of those cases, it's Bernie, or maybe Warren or Buttigieg, who takes advantage of the opportunity. What if, say, both Biden *and* Bernie fade? Probably still Warren or Buttigieg picks up the slack. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2019 Hibernated