Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 11, 2020

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Thu Dec 26 21:01:29 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris But there's lots of evidence that voters don't blame a new president for a recession that began before his term. Almost all of the variance in economic performance under Obama came in 2009 and it was rather steady from 2010-16 (unless you're cherry-picking indicators). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is to say, the economy has consistently been pretty good under Trump. And it was consistently mediocre but recovering at an OK pace under Obama (except at the very start of his term, but voters probably weren't blaming him for the previous recession). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris Also, consumer sentiment is definitely NOT exogenous to politics. Shutdowns and the like can also heavily influence consumer confidence without impacting the economy per se. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2019 Hibernated