Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Well the early polling leader wins ~50% of the time, whereas if you just pick a candidate at random, you'll be right 10% of the time (assuming an average of ~10 candidates per race). So that's actually a pretty big improvement! You'll be wrong only half the time instead of 90%! — PolitiTweet.org
Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro
This is the loneliest cause in politics. Early handicapping is almost always wrong or off-base. (Obama 2008, McCain… https://t.co/q2LNML8s9K
