Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 6, 2020

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Thu Dec 19 22:38:57 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of complicated exceptions; once you do get to states actually voting, then most of the swings are dictated by the primary calendar and who's winning states and/or overperforming "expectations". Also, candidates who lose *too* much ground can be forced to drop out. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, candidates rising in the polls are overrated and candidates falling in the polls are underrated because people intuitively presume that there's "momentum" in polling when (simplifying a lot here) empirically polls are more like a random walk with some mean reversion. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hey folks, come follow our Democratic debate liveblog!: https://t.co/FRXkdu2Hmk — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 20, 2019 Hibernated