Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked May 6, 2020

Created

Thu Dec 19 22:33:27 +0000 2019

Likes

1,305

Retweets

116

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, candidates rising in the polls are overrated and candidates falling in the polls are underrated because people intuitively presume that there's "momentum" in polling when (simplifying a lot here) empirically polls are more like a random walk with some mean reversion. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @micahcohen: We added a "do you support removing Trump" chart to our impeachment polls tracker: https://t.co/OpY4MCm73X https://t.co/7M… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Retweet Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of complicated exceptions; once you do get to states actually voting, then most of the swings are dictated by the primary calendar and who's winning states and/or overperforming "expectations". Also, candidates who lose *too* much ground can be forced to drop out. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 19, 2019 Hibernated