Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked May 6, 2020

Created

Tue Dec 17 22:50:55 +0000 2019

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing to note about our primary averages is that they're programmed to be more aggressive after major events. (Major events: big primary/caucus nights, debates, major candidates dropping out). Outside of that, they'll be more conservative. https://t.co/NRHApT7FSF — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2019 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We also find that debates produce a decent amount of reversion toward the mean (which we calculate based "fundamentals": a candidate's endorsements, money raised, and experience). They can sometimes serve as a reset for candidates who are over-performing or underperforming. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2019 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if say Klobuchar has a couple polls where she's at 5% instead of 2%, the model will assume that's mostly noise if there hasn't been a major event recently and will need a few more polls to confirm the trend. But just a poll or 2 or 3 could swing the numbers after a big event. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 17, 2019 Hibernated