Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 6, 2020

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Sat Dec 14 21:38:13 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@yeselson @SeanTrende @daveweigel @StuPolitics @Nate_Cohn ST also has Texas, where Biden has polled quite well, especially since Beto's dropout (and Biden's list of Hispanic endorsers is reasonably impressive). In a contest that's ~even nationally, Bernie should win CA. But Biden wins TX, VA and NC, which get called before CA on ST. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @daveweigel @StuPolitics More substantively: I think people underestimate the chance Bernie sweeps the first 3. I also think they may slightly *overestimate* how certain he is to win the nomination conditional upon winning the first 3 states. So I'm fairly agnostic on Bernie relative to e.g. PredictIt. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @smotus @daveweigel @StuPolitics So I have very... complicated feelings about all this. At a minimum, it means Sanders is less likely (perhaps much less likely) to prevail at a brokered convention than he otherwise would be given his delegate share, which probably has a material impact on his overall chances. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2019 Hibernated