Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 6, 2020

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Sat Dec 14 21:22:16 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @daveweigel @StuPolitics More substantively: I think people underestimate the chance Bernie sweeps the first 3. I also think they may slightly *overestimate* how certain he is to win the nomination conditional upon winning the first 3 states. So I'm fairly agnostic on Bernie relative to e.g. PredictIt. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @daveweigel @StuPolitics I don't actually think people are underrating the Sanders scenario because everyone always says that everyone is underrating the Sanders scenario, which sort of by definition means it isn't underrated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@yeselson @SeanTrende @daveweigel @StuPolitics @Nate_Cohn ST also has Texas, where Biden has polled quite well, especially since Beto's dropout (and Biden's list of Hispanic endorsers is reasonably impressive). In a contest that's ~even nationally, Bernie should win CA. But Biden wins TX, VA and NC, which get called before CA on ST. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2019 Hibernated