Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Fri Dec 13 00:07:16 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Higher diffusion tends to predict higher polling volatility. That is to say, when the race is unsettled, you'll typically get bigger and more unpredictable polling swings. So this is somewhat good news for candidates who might not like what the polls say lately. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As you might gather, this year's D race is relatively unsettled, so has high diffusion. Here it stands in comparison to other races at the same point in time (57 days before Iowa). It's most similar to the '08, '12 and '16 GOP races, and the '88 and '04 Democratic ones. https://t.co/50xGdYoZbB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Generally when there's a landslide (as in the UK tonight) everyone's hot takes are mostly right and when there's a close result everyone's hot takes are mostly wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2019 Hibernated