Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Wed Dec 11 01:24:25 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Like at this stage, there's absolutely zero repetitional risk to saying "Trump's a modest favorite"—you'll seem wise, chastened, prudent—whereas there definitely IS some to saying "Trump's a modest underdog", even though you can build a perfectly reasonable argument either way. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 11, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There's not much of a market for either the demand or supply for these takes: —Mainstream media doesn't want to repeat the "mistakes" of 2016, whatever those were —Republicans like Trump —Democrats want to emotionally hedge against a Trump 2nd term and/or not breed complacency — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 11, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People love thinkng about the more exotic scenarios but Biden would likely be a quite heavy favorite to win the nomination if he wins Iowa (not at all out of the question) and then still would have some pretty decent chances if he doesn't (depending on a lot of things). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 11, 2019 Hibernated