Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Tue Dec 10 22:59:21 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be sure, like all trendy narratives, this one is probably a *bit* exaggerated. Sanders still needs several things to go right, probably starting with a win in IA. And whether the party will unify around him if we wins early on is an open question. But it's not a bad position! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Granted, I don't know how many readers care, but it's because we think carefully about this stuff that we're well calibrated over a very large sample of probabilistic forecasts over the past decade (i.e. our 5% chances really do mean ~5%, historically). https://t.co/8oqu1OmvAz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JonWalkerDC I think you're mostly wrong. There *is* enough data over 12 years of out-of-sample predictions to say quite a bit about our models, especially given that Congressional elections and primary elections give you dozens or hundreds of elections each cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated