Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Tue Dec 10 22:55:11 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Granted, I don't know how many readers care, but it's because we think carefully about this stuff that we're well calibrated over a very large sample of probabilistic forecasts over the past decade (i.e. our 5% chances really do mean ~5%, historically). https://t.co/8oqu1OmvAz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's actually not so small. There are hundreds of primary results since 1980, which is enough to empirically measure the shape of the probability distribution. Also, there are theoretical reasons to use fat-tailed distributions in cases of low n's. — PolitiTweet.org

The data set in terms of results is so small that is zero way to prove if this holds up or just provides more abili… https://t.co/0O6Zxzr70i

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be sure, like all trendy narratives, this one is probably a *bit* exaggerated. Sanders still needs several things to go right, probably starting with a win in IA. And whether the party will unify around him if we wins early on is an open question. But it's not a bad position! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated