Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Tue Dec 10 20:53:41 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Clearly Bernie (or anybody) would be very formidable if he won the first 3, but I don't think that's exactly right re: bounces, because bounces recalibrate relative to revised expectations pretty quickly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Buttigieg declined a fair bit in this poll, so it seems likely that Warren got some of the recent Warren -> Buttigieg converts back. But the ones she *didn't* get back might be harder to reacquire later on. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias In other words, if he wins IA, he'll be expected to win NH, so his NH bounce would be smaller, and if he wins both IA & NH, he'll be expected to win NV, etc. While you can still make *some* gains by winning states even as the perceived frontrunner, the risk/reward changes a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2019 Hibernated