Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 3, 2020

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Sun Dec 08 20:10:52 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview @jonmladd @mattyglesias Total $ in individual contributions seems to be the best metric. There doesn't appear to be anything particularly special about either small donors or big donors in predicting poll movement. Our data isn't great on self-raised $ but it doesn't *appear* to have the same impact. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 8, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview @jonmladd @mattyglesias FWIW, I've done a decent bit of work on this lately, and fundraising does have a bit of predictive power in forecasting movement in national polls. Not as much as endorsements but some. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 8, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol @jonmladd @mattyglesias This is kind of an aside but it also seems relevant that the amount of useful data has increased quite a bit as a result of recent primary cycles. Of the 15 competitive primaries since 1980 (the data in '72 & '76 is mostly too spotty for rigorous work), 5 have occurred since '08. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 8, 2019 Hibernated