
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Basically, on the spectrum of a) 2nd choices are distributed completely at random to b) 2nd choices are strictly determined by ideological & other 'lanes' a) is closer to the truth than b). But if you'll permit some complexity, it's more like a 70/30 or 60/40 mix of a) to b). — PolitiTweet.org