Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 03:04:50 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanMcElwee I can sorta see Buttigieg being a good New Hampshire general election candidate tbh. White and secular states are where you'd expect him to overperform (blatantly stealing this theory from @Nate_Cohn). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @mattyglesias In other words, it's better IMO to have a polling aveage that captures the swings such as they are, and then revert toward whichever priors you like for making predictions, rather than have a slow-moving polling average. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanMcElwee @Nate_Cohn I am not vouching for everything Emerson does. They have, however, gotten fairly good results over a fairly large sample of polls, and they don't herd much, which is typically how weird pollsters get superficially good results. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated