Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 26, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 02:01:27 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @mattyglesias In other words, it's better IMO to have a polling aveage that captures the swings such as they are, and then revert toward whichever priors you like for making predictions, rather than have a slow-moving polling average. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @mattyglesias I've gotten into this fight with folks before and the issue is that if you set a model that is deliberately conservative to reduce noise, you wind up in the uncanny valley where your polling aveage isn't quite predictive but also isn't quite descriptive of what polls say today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanMcElwee I can sorta see Buttigieg being a good New Hampshire general election candidate tbh. White and secular states are where you'd expect him to overperform (blatantly stealing this theory from @Nate_Cohn). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated