Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 24, 2020

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Mon Nov 25 21:11:09 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some Super Tuesday states: CA: Biden 23.0, Warren 20.6, Sanders 19.2, Buttigieg 7.6 TX: Biden 25.3, Warren 15.3, Sanders 14.1, Buttigieg 6.1 NC: Biden 33.8, Warren 15.1, Sanders 14.6, Buttigieg 6.0 VA: Biden 30.9, Warren 15.0, Sanders 14.5, Buttigieg 8.3 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another way to put it: for a while now, Warren's early-state polling averages have tended to be a bit worse than her national polls. So if she's at 19-ish percent nationally, we might expect a lot of early-state numbers in the mid-high teens. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@adrian_gray @jbarro In principle, it's the same as in a general election, i.e. we look at where a certain pollster's polls compare to the trendline/average in each state for each candidate. e.g. if Warren polls at a 19 in a state where she's at a 17 in the average, that's a Warren + 2 house effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 25, 2019 Hibernated