Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 21, 2020

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Tue Nov 19 22:31:11 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One scenario worth thinking about is that other than Biden, no one's an obviously safe bet to get >=15% of the vote in the South. (Even *with* a post-IA/NH surge, Buttigieg might be weak enough in the South to be <15%). And if you don't get at least 15%, you don't get delegates. — PolitiTweet.org

Is Mayor Pete's rise good for Biden, by hurting Warren before the South?

Posted Nov. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Buttigieg is clearly on an upward trajectory but that New Hampshire poll you're all tweeting about has a sample size of only 255 voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With that said, it's pretty darn early to be talking about scenarios this specific. Odds are that something will come along to disrupt the current equilibrium; it may even be disrupted a few more times before Iowa votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 19, 2019 Hibernated