Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 21, 2020

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Sat Nov 16 19:17:23 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I can't really figure our whether folks actually think M4A is passable in 2021 (it would be very hard) or whether they think it's bad strategy to concede right now that M4A isn't likely to be passed (I don't have strong feelings about the best strategy, but a plausible argument). — PolitiTweet.org

nobody seems to actually believe Berniecare is passable, so far as I can tell?

Posted Nov. 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3) Booker, Harris and Klobuchar *collectively* have only a 3-4% chance at prediction markets and it's surely higher than that. 4) The chances for late-entry candidates to win—i.e. Bloomberg, Patrick, Clinton—are overrated, conversely. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd add to this: people tend to overestimate the importance of TRENDS and underestimate LEVELS. The Democratic primary electorate *is* getting further left, no question about that. But still something like ~45% of D primary voters say they're moderate or conservative... — PolitiTweet.org

1) This turned into a THREAD: A notable theme of the 2020 Dem primary has been the degree to which some candidates… https://t.co/HguYRSPFNr

Posted Nov. 16, 2019 Hibernated