Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 21, 2020

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Sat Nov 16 14:46:01 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here it is in the 2008 D primary, for example, where basically all polling movement is the result of 3 events: 1) Obama's win in Iowa; 2) Clinton's comeback in NH a week later; 3) Obama's big Super Tuesday. https://t.co/kNrI4V2UZJ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing we're going to be experimenting with in our polling averages this year is using priors based on important dates in the calendar to determine how much polling movement is likely to be signal or noise. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 16, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With current political coalitions, there's no such thing as a great Senate map for Democrats given the (deliberate) bias of the Senate toward rural states. Rather, there are *OK* maps for Democrats (e.g. 2022), terrible ones (e.g. 2018) and various gradients in between. — PolitiTweet.org

The 2022 Senate map is great for Dems (better than 2020) so we could also see a scenario like Rs saw in 2018 where… https://t.co/PJ9MBWYeCs

Posted Nov. 16, 2019 Hibernated