Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 14, 2020

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Sun Nov 10 17:06:02 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you want to say “Biden's weaker than his national polls would suggest”, that's reasonable (indeed correct IMO). But the next sentence ought to be roughly “nonetheless his position is decent, the other candidates have their own issues, and he’s among the more likely nominees”. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbenton I think you're being too generous. The campaign press has been bored of Warren/Biden and has explicitly been clamoring for new storylines. And Bloomberg is a much bigger figure in NYC than he is nationally. So it got overhyped in a way that revealed some blind spots. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you're going more than about a ¼-step beyond that ^^^ toward further Biden pessimism, then you're simply overrating how much your subjective priors are worth relative to the objective indicators (i.e. polls, endorsements, etc.). Or you're cherry-picking data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 10, 2019 Hibernated