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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 9, 2020

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Sun Nov 03 17:06:42 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. If you look at *all 4* early states as a group, they look quite similar to national polls, especially if you weight by the number of voters or delegates they have. Buttigieg maybe a hair stronger in the early states (although weak in SC) but pretty minor differences overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another good reason is that they're more reflective of Democratic voters overall, who are 40% nonwhite, than Iowa and New Hampshire, which are very white. If the media truly gave SC/NV coequal billing with IA/NH, that would obviate the need somewhat, but they don't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I'm not sure that's a straightforward inference since other polls show Trump with a lot of weakness in states like MI and PA. https://t.co/t9jgEHjull — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 4, 2019 Hibernated