Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 9, 2020

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Sun Nov 03 16:43:29 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another good reason is that they're more reflective of Democratic voters overall, who are 40% nonwhite, than Iowa and New Hampshire, which are very white. If the media truly gave SC/NV coequal billing with IA/NH, that would obviate the need somewhat, but they don't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One good reason is that they're reasonably predictive of who wins the primary. About 50-60% of national poll leaders at this point in the campaign won. — PolitiTweet.org

I will never understand why media organizations continue to do so many national primary polls.

Posted Nov. 3, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. If you look at *all 4* early states as a group, they look quite similar to national polls, especially if you weight by the number of voters or delegates they have. Buttigieg maybe a hair stronger in the early states (although weak in SC) but pretty minor differences overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2019 Hibernated