Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 9, 2020

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Wed Oct 30 16:37:40 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although Warren draws fairly broadly from different candidates' coalitions, Buttigieg supporters are more likely to have Warren as their 2nd choice than any other major candidate. https://t.co/4JApGxCCKx https://t.co/Hab0glaGRv — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By "momentum is a bit overrated", I mean this: If a candidate went from polling at 10% *last* month to 15% this month, you might assume she's bound to improve to 20% *next* month. Empirically, that's not true, though. She's roughly as likely to go back down to 10% as up to 20%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if pro-Warren folks instinctually see Buttigieg as a threat, that instinct is correct, I think. (He could also complicate her path in Iowa.) Folks who are really into Warren's lefty policy ideas aren't gonna love Pete, but not that many people vote on the basis of ideology. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2019 Hibernated