Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 9, 2020

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Wed Oct 30 13:35:45 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By "momentum is a bit overrated", I mean this: If a candidate went from polling at 10% *last* month to 15% this month, you might assume she's bound to improve to 20% *next* month. Empirically, that's not true, though. She's roughly as likely to go back down to 10% as up to 20%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A couple of interrelated observations: 1) Warren's still in a pretty good position 2) At some point, she'll need to expand her coalition further and she may have picked off most of the low-hanging fruit. 3) "Momentum" is a bit overrated — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although Warren draws fairly broadly from different candidates' coalitions, Buttigieg supporters are more likely to have Warren as their 2nd choice than any other major candidate. https://t.co/4JApGxCCKx https://t.co/Hab0glaGRv — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2019 Hibernated