Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 9, 2020

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Sun Oct 27 18:53:28 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview Well, the big feature article in NYMag today strongly implied that it's only a matter of time before his campaign runs out of gas. And other news coverage makes constant reference to his declining polls, when it's not clear his poll toplines are really declining at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview I mean, some of this is how much depth you want to go into. *To a first approximation*, Biden's position in the polls has been fairly steady and the media perception mostly misses that. To a 2nd approximation, there are certainly vulnerabilities in his #'s beneath the surface. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview Prediction markets—not quite the same thing as media conventional wisdom but often correlated with it—give Warren a 43% chance and Biden only a 19% chance, which is an awfully big gap even if you think she's a bit more likely than him to win (as I probably do, I think?). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 27, 2019 Hibernated