Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Tue Sep 10 11:57:52 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, if there are several candidates with a 1%-5% chance, then *collectively* they might have a 10-15% chance to win or something. But even though it's "early", it's NOT easy to come back from that position. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People are scurred of ~PrObABiLiTiEs~ but empirically, if you're polling in the low single digits right now (e.g. Beto, Booker, Castro, Klob), your chances of winning the nomination are very low. (Like, <5% most likely, and that's probably generous.) https://t.co/q0aXzqANaB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IMO what folks miss is that the top of the Democratic field is fairly strong. All the heavyweights (in terms of being compelling to Ds) ran. Ds are happy with their field, they *really* like the top 3-5 candidates, and they don't think they need to go shopping around beyond that. https://t.co/AVlepLfhdo — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated