Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Tue Sep 10 11:57:52 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People are scurred of ~PrObABiLiTiEs~ but empirically, if you're polling in the low single digits right now (e.g. Beto, Booker, Castro, Klob), your chances of winning the nomination are very low. (Like, <5% most likely, and that's probably generous.) https://t.co/q0aXzqANaB — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ClareMalone: New pod, a debate preview edition in which we all talk over each other in the proper spirit of things. https://t.co/z31gI7… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Retweet Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, if there are several candidates with a 1%-5% chance, then *collectively* they might have a 10-15% chance to win or something. But even though it's "early", it's NOT easy to come back from that position. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated